When the Grand Bargain was first announced I actually embraced it –well, sort of. My rationale was that the cash and exactions squeezed from builders could be offset by the additional housing capacity; also I thought, maybe, neighborhoods outrage at upzones would be effectively neutralized by the fact that the upzones would come with rent restricted housing. My thought then is that, politically anyway, City Councilmembers would be able to ignore neighbors by playing the social justice and equity card: the upzones would improve social justice and equality (whatever those things mean.) However, as I also pointed out, why would neighborhoods support the upzones that are part of the Bargain when they’ve always been against upzones? The truth is that the neighborhood vitriol is just getting warmed up and unless the City Council finds the nerve it didn’t have for small-lot and microhousing legislation, the Bargain seems in trouble,

For example, here’s what the angry neighbors in Wallingford are saying about HALA and the Bargain:

Mayor Murray’s “Grand Bargain” within the HALA panel of developers and advocacy organizations would:

Change all single-family zoning within Urban Villages to multi-family zoning

Change multi-family zoning to favor apartments and condos over town home

Greatly increase the allowed heights and size in multi-family zones (from 3 to 4 or 5 stories) and in commercial zones (from 4 to 5 or 6 stories

Push out locally-owned small businesses that cannot afford the higher rents in new mid-rise mixed-use building

Accelerate demolition of existing affordable housing by creating new incentives for developers and raising taxes on properties that are not redeveloped

Replace affordable housing with top-dollar houses and apartments, with only 5 to 7% of new units reserved as affordable

Create new legal loopholes for developers

Make these changes despite City studies confirming that existing zoning is adequate for predicted future population growth

What I predicted is happening. Far from embracing the Grand Bargain, neighbors are calling it a “loophole” and mischaracterizing the intent of mandatory inclusionary zoning as creating, “top-dollar houses and apartments, with only 5 to 7% of new units reserved as affordable.” This language is right out of the same play book that neighbors have used for every effort to create more housing capacity, but when builders try to build what is already allowed.

It is important that I restate again what we are for: more housing of all types, everywhere in the city, for all levels of income. We are highly skeptical of whether the Grand Bargain scheme will actually work. Our early work shows that it won’t and even if it does, will only work in limited ways and will raise overall housing prices. We are not against the upzone aspect of the Grand Bargain. We think that the upzones all by themselves along with reducing other costly regulations would help lower prices by increasing supply. Also, there are good programs like the Multifamily Tax Exemption (MFTE) and the Housing Levy that more efficiently create needed subsidized housing.

I point out neighborhood opposition to highlight the studies naivete of the Mayor, City staff and the City Council who seem to be living in two, parallel worlds: one world where somehow Mandatory Inclusionary Zoning will make EVERYONE happy and reality. It’s going to be a rude awaking from the dreamworld where neighbors embrace bigger buildings just because they have a few units of rent restricted housing and builders can actually make those buildings work.