I’ve already pointed out that candidate for Mayor Lorena Gonzalez’ plan isn’t a plan at all but mostly a word salad intended to trigger sentiments in voters. The only plan behind what Gonzalez has offered on housing and homelessness is that voters will hear the right words enough times that they’ll vote for her. But I thought I’d point out something that Gonzalez does that everyone — media, politicians, and armchair “urbanists” — is guilty of. I’ll call it housing hyperbole.

In her “plan,” Gonzalez says,

As Seattle Mayor, I know we must lead in our region and work closely with local, regional, state and federal partners to develop the housing we need: about 37,000 more affordable homes for families and individuals living on extremely low incomes (according to the latest 2020 McKinsey & Co. report).

From Lorena for Seattle Website

Let’s get something clear. From 2005 to 2014, a period of 10 years, the City of Seattle permitted 40,000 housing units.

Well, sure. But that was years ago. Surely the City has permitted many more units each year, probably lots more than just 4,000 units. Right?

The year before the pandemic broke out, the City of Seattle permitted more than 3,000 multifamily units. With single-family and townhouses, the City was still permitting about the same in 2019 as it was years ago.

I wish we had a curious and hard working media that could ask the question of Gonzalez, “Well, how long would it take to build 37,000 units of housing?” That’s not just a logical question it would be, well, the most basic question you’d ask. If there are thousands of people suffering and your plan is to build lots of housing fast, how long would that take.

But don’t expect the crack squad of “journalists” and bloggers to put their sandwiches down and pose such a simple question. The answer is, based on the regular rhythm of permitting at the City, it would take about a decade. If the pace was doubled, it would take 5 years. Now keep in mind that these are permitting numbers, not completed developments with certificates of occupancy. It takes as long as five years to build a project in Seattle. Even if Gonzalez picked up a hammer and worked on the crane from day one, the first of her 37,000 units would be ready until 2027.

Issued permits are worth looking at because it gives some indication of what is right around the corner, but it’s impossible to say, based on permits how many of those 3,000 units permitted in 2019 were available for move in in 2020 or 2021. Many might still be in construction.

Gonzalez’ ignorance is widespread. Don’t even get me started on McKinsey and Company. Part of the reason we’re in such a mess is that Gonzalez doesn’t have a clue what it takes to build a housing project nor does she have any interest in figuring that out. And the media? Same problem. No interest in the process of financing, land acquisition, construction, and permitting. It takes a long time, is expensive, and isn’t helped by taxes, fees, fines, and process extortion like design review and inclusionary zoning.

Even if politicians and the press did know the details, I doubt they’d bother to ask the question, “How do you build an additional 37,000 units quickly.” Forget about even asking where did such a nice round number come from. Real people wake up every day in Seattle and across the country with real problems, often the biggest problem they face is how and whether they have rent for next month. Meanwhile, Gonzalez and her ilk are taking a mental trip through a housing Fantasyland.