You might remember George Bush’s big moment Mission Accomplished moment when, in 2003, he landed on the deck of an aircraft carrier and declared that, “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed,” in front of a huge banner reading, “Mission Accomplished.” Of course we now know the fighting went on and on for many years. In a story headlined, Are the Upzones Working? Rob Johnson Claims Early Victory, Councilmember Rob Johnson had his Mission Accomplished moment, saying that Mandatory Inclusionary Zoning (MIZ) “represents our future vision for this city—an affordable, green and vibrant future for Seattle and all its current and future residents.”  Johnson is smart enough to do the math on MIZ and that will add costs to new housing development. Far from making his case for MIZ, his argument that some developers are opting into the scheme makes our point: sure, MIZ works when it actually pencils so why not make it a voluntary program?

As we’ve said again and again, MIZ is a terrible idea. Adding costs to something doesn’t make it cheaper. And this is aggrevated by the fact that the money that is wrung out of the production of market rate housing will be poured into a grossly inefficient system of funding housing. The $25 million that Johnson crows about in the Seattle Weekly story will produce somewhere between 50 and 71 units, maybe, someday off in the future, with long waiting lists. When the per unit costs of housing produced by the non-profit housing industrial complex range from $350,000 to $500,000 all that money won’t produce all that much housing. But it will likely increase the cost of the housing that is being produced today. Almost certainly the additional costs of the projects Johnson touts will be sucked up by renters that move into those projects in the next two years.

But I’ve already been saying that for years. Here’s what Sightline’s guy Dan Bertolet says about MIZ in the same article:

The problem is it’s much easier to point to a project that’s moving forward than to one that never got past the idea stage because it was deemed infeasible from the start. And every time one project doesn’t move forward it’s maybe a hundred more low-income families pushed out of the city, the very same vulnerable people that MHA is intended to protect

If MIZ is such a great idea, then take away the mandate and see how many developers joint the few that Johnson is touting. If it works, then we will get more density and some extra funding. If it doesn’t, then there is no harm done, including to projects that would have otherwise been feasible without the mandate. And with a voluntary program in the city at large, the data on who participates and why can help create a true incentive program based on demand for housing rather than arbitrary requirements that won’t adjust over time.

And the truth is the neighborhoods, like the rogue elements of the Iraqi army cut lose in 2003, will continue to harass and harry Johnson’s efforts to impose MIZ. Additionally, pressure will continue to increase fees and inclusion, making the program even worse that it is today. As the many bumper stickers that proliferated after the Bush gaffe said, nothing has been accomplished yet, unless raising housing prices counts as something. And raising prices on the production of housing will never help affordability, period. Some people have to learn things the hard way.