I don’t debate rent control any more. There was a time when we argued about rent control with Councilmembers and its socialist backers. But the argument has morphed into something different that a debate about policy; this is religious at this point. And that characterization is probably unfair to religious zealots. Anyone should have known that the rent control scheme is as intractable as the belief of people who oppose vaccination, especially when I asked the audience at the big debate in 2015 whether they’d support more lower priced housing if it meant more developers would make money building that cheaper housing. There was a resounding, “No!” I said then, let the record show that socialists would rather have more expensive and scarce housing than let anyone make money building it. It was another version of Margaret Thatcher’s indictment of socialism: Socialists “would rather the poor were poorer provided the rich were less rich.” But what will happen over the next year with this latest proposal?

Sawant is All Alone 

She is. But that’s how leadership works, especially because, “in the land of the blind, they one eyed man is king.” The paucity if anyone with a coherent vision for the city means even one bad idea is stronger than no idea at all. Some people think that because the proposal is being called, in the press, Sawant’s proposal, that somehow she’s isolated and there won’t be support for whatever her scheme entails. If you’re one of those people you’re wrong and either you’re just hopeful or you haven’t been paying attention. Of the things you don’t like that you attribute to Sawant none of them were done by her; from minimum wage to the “head tax” the Council and Mayor took her ideas and made them law. Sawant was the person who wanted $150 in annual taxes on jobs and rallied people around the idea. But it was the Council and Mayor that allowed the legislation for half that to come alive and pass initially. Remember, the Mayor signed it into law! Do you remember that? Probably not. Whatever Sawant proposes will turn into a 9-0 vote by the Council in favor of something.

But it’s illegal

Yes, rent control is illegal — for now. But the City Council and Mayor and the City itself are in favor of rent control and repealing the state’s preemption of rent control for local jurisdictions. Whatever they pass of Sawant’s proposal will be prospective on that repeal or some state legislation. The City’s legislative arm are probably going to coalesce around a proposal for a statewide imposition of rent control rather than a simple preemption appeal. Why? Because “that’s what they did in Oregon” and yes, some landlords are starting to support that idea. Why would landlords support this? Because the predictability of having the state dictate the increases would be irresistible. Remember, landlords and most business people crave predictability more than anything else. Knowing that the cap is high, say 10 percent increases per year, would sound fine. And having the program dictated by Olympia, some people think, would mean the City of Seattle couldn’t make it worse. That’s false too. Even with state approval of the Mulitfamly Tax Exemption (MFTE) program, the City has managed to blatantly violate state law and their own ordinance to limit rent increases.

That Orion kid will save us!

The election will yield little benefit for the housing problem in Seattle. As I’ve said before, this election will not be a watershed moment for Seattle on housing or business or creating a pro-growth or even business friendly environment. All of the candidates are deeply compromised. Press them. If rent control was not illegal would you support it? Call it, “rent stabilization.” Would you support that if the legislature repealed the prohibition? The state’s preemption is the political hiding place for candidates and elected officials who don’t openly embrace rent control. Just ask Senator Pedersen what he thinks about the issue. Yes, the Chamber and others (maybe even you!) are spending money on these candidates. But they’re politicians and that means they’ll turn toward the mob shouting at them long before they’ll worry about making the business community upset. Just look at the last five years.

What’s likely? Statewide rent control. 

Watch for legislature to deliver on it’s promise to “do something” about rent control during the next session. The legislature has become more hostile toward business and is run largely by legislators from Seattle and the Puget Sound. What about the moderates? It’s going be an impeachment circus nationally, and all forms of Democrats are going to feel the need to shore up their progressive credentials. The pressure on moderates to give on this one, especially if they hear from landlords saying they’d rather have the state do rent control than Seattle, gives them a way out.

Why is statewide rent control a terrible idea?

Why is this deadly? Have you ever seen a law pass in Olympia that gets repealed when it doesn’t work? How about a tax? When the law gets passed, it never goes away. And while the limits on rents might be tolerable now, how long would that restraint last? We know that proponents, when rent control fails to lower prices, claim, “we didn’t do enough rent control!” The very fact that the measure would emerge as some kind of “compromise” assures that it will be deemed illegitimate by more radical elements of the socialist movement. And remember, the goal of rent control isn’t really to lower prices, it’s to put the government in control of private rental properties. When rent control fails along with all the other bad interventions, the claim is that the housing market doesn’t work: housing is a right! That means people should be able to rent anywhere, at anytime, for as long as they want even if they can’t pay or violate leases.

We’ll have a statewide election! 

Some people think that the legislature will put the measure on the ballot. That might be part of the compromise. So think of this, a presidential election year with an impeachment proceeding against a very unpopular President who is on the ballot (maybe) and a measure to “help poor tenants.” How do you think that election will turn out? There will be many angry progressive voters out next year, and if there is a rent control measure on the ballot it is almost certain to pass. And don’t look for the business community (like the pointless Seattle Chamber of Commerce) to rally around defending landlords. Remember, Amazon and other tech companies lined up to support bad tenant landlord legislation. So did the Mariners! This will cost millions of dollars to oppose and it will pass anyway, getting the state rent control and burnishing the reputation of landlord advocates as greedy corporatists.

It’s bigger than rent control now

And here’s the thing: beating rent control is necessary but not sufficient to counter the destruction of our housing economy. Sadly, not very many people understand or care about this. Would an Oregon style rent control measure destroy private housing as we know it next year? Of course not. But gradually, taken together with a raft of other horrible policies and things like Mandatory Inclusionary Zoning (what the City called MHA), will mean higher costs, taller and wider barriers of entry into the housing market for smaller businesses, and rising prices. What will be left is a longer and longer entitlement process that only large scale developers with huge assets to absorb and giant landlords that can afford lots of lawyers and management companies. This all will ensure higher prices for consumers of all incomes and a widening gap between the pain felt by the poor and the rich. I’ve already laid out the broad effort we need to fully fund and implement as soon as possible. The last link leads to part one and you can also read parts two and three. Read all three!

Poor Ol’ Laocoon

Yep. I’m bringing him up again. He warned the leaders of Troy to leave that damn wooden horse on the beach. They wouldn’t listen. I’m warning everyone again. We gain nothing from engaging the public policy process without a steady and sustained response based on data and correcting the bad information being repeated over and over again by politicians and the press. Second, we need real proposals that actually solve the problem and help real people. And finally, we need a sustained public engagement effort that leverages what people already know and believe, that when housing is scarce it gets expensive and is the greatest threat to fairness and ultimately to poor people. Anything short of this kind of comprehensive effort will lead to a worsening of the housing economy. We still have a chance; we can start by leaving that horse on the beach.

Featured image is one of the handful other illustrations of the Laocoön story on a fresco in the Casa del Menandro, Pompeii (Wikimedia CC BY-SA 3.0). From Ancient World Magazine.