Last week I had the opportunity to push back on the notion that the only way to “save” the Showbox theater downtown is to slap a historic designation on it. This makes absolutely no sense. The problem with the Showbox venue — and old brick building downtown slated for demolition to make way for housing — isn’t one of housing versus preservation of a much loved venue. It also isn’t a battle between Seattle’s past and Seattle’s future. The problem and the story is about chronic inaction by the Seattle City Council and Mayor on Unreenforced Masonry buildings, otherwise known as URMs. There are hundreds of these buildings all over town that need upgrades to make them safe. The Showbox is an indicator species of a greater extinction of these buildings unless something is done.

Briefly, my point is that the economics of retrofitting older buildings makes doing that almost impossible. The truth is that an old brick building does have value simply because it is old and because it is brick. It is cool. People want to go inside and do stuff in there like live, watch shows, or have an office. However, brick doesn’t respond well to earthquakes. Bricks don’t bend, they break. So there is the problem. Can the cool uses in that old brick building generate enough money to pay for the big retrofits to “save” the building. The answer is almost always “No.” Coffee shops, concert venues, and other retail uses simply can’t cover that cost. Office and housing might, but it will be pricey.

The most rational way, then, to make these buildings safe is to demolish them. That is unless there is someway to bring money to the table. If this was entirely within the realm of private finance, I might argue that the public at large has little or no interest in spending money to rehabilitate a private asset that would be best torn down. However, in the case of URM, there is a compelling interest not just in preserving old stuff, but in keeping people safe and maximizing economic benefit.

Here’s what the City could do to resolve this issue. Identify all URMs that represent danger to people in and around them, and:

• Mandate the demolition of those buildings;
• Buy them, rehabilitate them, then sell them;
• Mandate that all the buildings be brought up to safe standards by a date certain;
• Pay for upgrades;
• Create a Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) program to capture the value of the capacity on the site, use that money for rehabilitation, and put the potential housing somewhere else (here’s a good explainer of TDR);
• Create a TDR program along with some public financing for improvements;
• Have meetings, talk about it, and do nothing and expect the private sector to pay for everything; or
• Grandstand and declare some buildings “historic” based on their use.

The City has essentially done the last two. That’s what’s doomed the Showbox, not some fable about the new versus the old. Those other things would take actual work. Someone would have to sit down and think about it, do some math, and then pass legislation and deal with the variables and potential ups and downs. That’s just too hard for City Hall. And besides, they have bunches of people working on how to tax new housing, fighting law suits against other bad policies, and there are so many speeches to give and ribbons to cut. It’s far easier to bemoan the “loss” of the Showbox and declare war on the private sector.

The truth is that the Showbox will fail at that location, period. It will not continue to operate there under the current circumstances if nothing changes. Second, if the historic designation is successful, the failure of the use will simply happen sooner, and the building would likely become <diabolical laughter> a We Work! The reason is about economics; seismic upgrades are seriously expensive and if the use can’t pay for them (either because it doesn’t generate enough money or can’t because of the limits of the site), then the building will remain underutilized, or padlocked and filled with boxes. We can save the Showbox. But sometimes I think Seattle prefers the drama to actual solutions.

But woe is you, Seattle, if you fail to heed the warnings of Laocoön and Cassandra. Sigh. But you always do. Maybe we can have a meeting about it the We Work Showbox in a couple years. See you there!

Here’s the video