Next week’s election is certainly the most controversial and worried about election in my lifetime.What does the election mean for housing in this country? In many respects, the answer is, “Not much.” The Trump administration, many states, and local governments of all political stripes have imposed eviction bans that run until the end of the year – at least. No elected official or candidate anywhere has emerged with an efficient plan for rent relief, and everyone in Washington DC has bought into a prevailing narrative: housing providers will be ok without getting rent.

Here’s the rundown of the key issues to think about if you’re in the housing business. 

Eviction bans– The reason why we have eviction bans is because bans are easy for politicians. After all, rent is just passive income. If nobody pays, it just means a shorter vacation or a smaller yacht. Eviction bans are popular because housing providers are perceived as bad actors anyway. We have not seen a change in this storyline that precedes the Covid-19 crisis. And it will not change after November 3^rd. 

Unpaid rent– There are more and more people telling me that they are seeing an increase in non-payers. Add this to growing vacancies and falling rents, and we’re setting up for a big solvency crisis in 2021 as tax bills and utilities will not get paid. People will have to lay off workers. Without substantial and significant action to eliminate unpaid rent at the root of this, we’ll see a financial crisis in the housing sector no matter who wins on November 3^rd. 

Lack of organization– Remember that story about the blind men and the elephant? Each blind man feeling a different part of the elephant was sure it an elephant is like a snake, like a tree, or like fan. I’ve been on calls across the country and each sounds a lot like the argument among the blind men. Lawsuits have been filed all over the place. People talk about organizing new groups. Efforts are made to lobby legislators and city councilmembers. This piecemeal and stubbornly parochial approach doesn’t seem destined to change on November 3^rd.

Do you want a change to these three underlying conditions in the housing world? Are you frustrated? Have national and state trade organizations left you feeling like their efforts are too little too late? Still waiting on that appeal pending at the Supreme Court? 

Everyone is making a good faith effort to alleviate the pain. But unless and until we begin a principled and data driven challenge with better ideas none of this will change, especially the narrative that powers the bad policy and interventions.  If you’ve read this far, please consider supporting the Center for Housing Economics. The Center is a start up that is based on three elements: challenge bad data every single day, offer practical ideas to help hard pressed families, tell a better and more accurate story about what providing housing means. 

Check out the prospectus for the Center for Housing Economics. Take the time to think about it and then, if you agree, give a generous contribution. Not sure? Give me a call. Send an email. Set up a call or a presentation. As President Trump is fond of saying, “What have you got to lose?” Karl Marx’ answer was “Your chains!” They are both right. If we continue on the current course, don’t expect things to change. But if we can motivate to create an efficient response and chart a new path, then things will change. It is up to you.